CYA in Government Hurricane Predictions

Apparently, the people in charge of such things in the US Government are predicting a hurricane season with more than the average storms. Which of course is ridiculous since the science (if it could possibly be called that) is so inexact as to be silly. They also predicted a busier than usual season last year and you know where that got us (or if you don’t, you can probably figure out that if you don’t remember it, it probably wasn’t that bad).

The way I figure it, since 2005 (Katrina and Rita) hurricane forecasters have no choice in predicting the upcoming season as busy because if they don’t, they’ll look like idiots. When they predict a busy season and it doesn’t happen (see last year), everyone forgets. This way, they cover their asses and if the prediction turns out right, they can be vindicated.

Key graf:

    The year-to-year swings, experts say, show how difficult it can be to predict hurricane activity.

Really?  Then why in the name of all that is holy are we bothering to announce this stuff?  Oh yeah, because sensationalism in news sells these days.  As for me, I’m all for a busy hurricane season, it might mean more summer rain for my garden and I figure people who moved back to New Orleans after Katrina probably need another lesson from God or Gaia or whoever regarding where it is and is not ok to live.  A large bowl between a big lake and a bigger ocean typically doesn’t qualify.

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